The Manila Times
VUCA world 4.0 and Philippine politics
by : Dr Carl E. Balita
IN 1991, the US Army coined the acronym VUCA in response to the extreme conditions in Afghanistan and in Iraq that resulted in a total change in the nature of warfare. The art of their war adapted to the VUCA world — that is volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous.
Finding similarities in the way modern business and economics have radically changed, business tried to make sense of it all to refer to the ever-changing environment with the term VUCA world, now a buzzword in strategic planning and discussions in the business world. VUCA is an old academic term. The Covid-19 pandemic gave it a reawakening and newer applications.
The recent events in Philippine politics can also be described as VUCA.
Dissecting the VUCA
Volatility describes the world through the speed of change that occurs in it. As things change continuously, the dynamic situation today transforms, in the turbulent speed of light, to the unthinkable tomorrow. What is true today may not be any more true tomorrow, and what happens next is relatively unexpected and unknown. The more volatile the world is, the more and faster things change.
Uncertainty results from the degree by which we cannot predict the future. If what is happening is not understood and when the basic cause-and-effect is unknown, it lacks predictability. While the event may be explained after the fact, making a hypothesis or forecast of them is difficult. The more uncertain the world is, the harder it is to predict.
Complexity is brought about by the situation that has many interconnected parts, variables and relationships between them. High complexity makes it impossible to fully analyze to lead to a clear conclusion. The more complex the world is, the harder it is to analyze.
Ambiguity is a situation in which information is incomplete, contradictory or inaccurate to draw any rational interpretation. It results in the lack of clarity and confusion on how to make a conclusion. The more ambiguous the world is, the harder it is to interpret.
VUCA and Philippine politics
The current political conflict or crisis among the highest leaders of the country has made situations more volatile and change faster, outcomes are harder to predict as they become more uncertain, the dynamics are complex and more difficult to analyze, and the turn of events are more challenging to interpret and are getting more ambiguous. There are just too many moving parts. Disappointing. Worrisome. Exasperating.
Amid recent devastation of typhoons, among other crises, this political storm is draining the productive energies of leaders and many government people to serve, in the same way that it exhausts the vigor of the Filipinos distracted by the political noise. No one is expert enough to help predict the end-game of this unprecedented political crisis painting the gloomy face of national uncertainty. VUCA world, indeed.
VUCA and leadership
However, a crisis may generate a positive effect — hopefully — if, at the end of this chaotic political tug of war, people learn lessons. This political storm must enable us to personify — and be able to choose — the best leaders for the future.
Bill George, senior fellow at Harvard Business School, defines a type of leadership called VUCA 2.0, giving the acronym a completely new meaning: vision, understanding, courage, adaptability.
Vision is the ability to see through chaos and define the ideal state of the future. With core values as its guiding compass, the leader defines the direction of the country and leads its people by communicating and sharing the vision. The Filipinos know that the vision of the “uniteam” has become an illusion. Sadly, there is no national vision. We should discover a leader who can inspire the entire nation toward a shared vision that influences unified action.
Understanding of the leader results from the openness to gain in-depth grasp of rapidly changing circumstances. The leader who has the humility to reflect upon experience, observe the environment, listen and learn will gain greater understanding navigating the storm. But Filipinos are now witness to and are divided by the egoistic pride and mutual arrogance exchanged among leaders who are grandstanding in refusing to seek understanding.
Courage is the risk-taking capability of the leader to make bold decisions and purposeful actions. The courage displayed has become toward narcissistic self-preservation that is neither bold decision nor purposeful action mindful of what benefits the Filipinos and the country. The disconcerted courage leads to chaos.
Adaptability is flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances while maintaining the course toward a vision. The individual differences and personal interests clashed to harm whom the leaders vowed to serve — the interest of the Filipinos.
The question is, do we have a leader who can unite us toward a vision with understanding, courage and adaptability?
Positive VUCA
I propose a VUCA 4.0 anchored on optimism amid the current experiences. VUCA can be given a more positive meaning — virtuous values, utilitarian unity, circumspective clarity, agile action.
Virtuous values anchor us to the morally good that matters most dearly and shared among us. The virtuous values define the core and essence of the Filipino and the nation just like the lighthouse in its rough sail. The many crises we have been through must have given us much time to introspect on our core values.
Utilitarian unity promotes collective collaboration and equitable synergy to achieve the greater good for the greater number. Filipinos are naturally kind who value unity and can be resilient, if united, in overcoming the uncertainty. This crisis is the most opportune moment to redefine unity.
Circumspective clarity achieves understanding that is crystallized by taking everything into account. We should be able to find meaning in this chaos. The complexity can be analyzed by the holographic circumspection to achieve crystal clear clarity — redundancy intended. We should suspend judgment and seek first to understand then to be understood. We should engage intelligent discourse with respectful tolerance and the intention to arrive at collective wisdom for the common interest. We should break our stubborn cognitive biases.
Agile action executes the strategy in a relentless pursuit of the vision. While hope is essential, it is not a strategy. Action is. Ambiguity may challenge the readiness for actions but agility pivots such actions to achieve results, or at least lessons in case they fail. Pivot shifts strategies while sticking to the vision in a situation where inaction is unacceptable. Filipinos need to act to execute change.
Election 2025 is coming, and the current experience is a perfect storm to guide wiser actions. The candidates must prepare for a more discerning electorate who must be sick and tired of the traditional politics they witness every day — locally and nationally. Filipinos must vote wisely.
The VUCA world paints a gloomy picture of the country that was and continues to validate itself in the Philippine politics that is. But as Filipinos make choices, the VUCA world may spell out something to make this nation survive and thrive — and catch-up to its neighbors who have gone farther and better.
Indeed, we are not Filipinos for nothing — unless we learned nothing … unless our hope is reduced to nothing … unless we do nothing.
-END-
Volatility describes the world through the speed of change that occurs in it. As things change continuously, the dynamic situation today transforms, in the turbulent speed of light, to the unthinkable tomorrow. What is true today may not be any more true tomorrow, and what happens next is relatively unexpected and unknown. The more volatile the world is, the more and faster things change.
Uncertainty results from the degree by which we cannot predict the future. If what is happening is not understood and when the basic cause-and-effect is unknown, it lacks predictability. While the event may be explained after the fact, making a hypothesis or forecast of them is difficult. The more uncertain the world is, the harder it is to predict.
Complexity is brought about by the situation that has many interconnected parts, variables and relationships between them. High complexity makes it impossible to fully analyze to lead to a clear conclusion. The more complex the world is, the harder it is to analyze.
Ambiguity is a situation in which information is incomplete, contradictory or inaccurate to draw any rational interpretation. It results in the lack of clarity and confusion on how to make a conclusion. The more ambiguous the world is, the harder it is to interpret.
VUCA and Philippine politics
The current political conflict or crisis among the highest leaders of the country has made situations more volatile and change faster, outcomes are harder to predict as they become more uncertain, the dynamics are complex and more difficult to analyze, and the turn of events are more challenging to interpret and are getting more ambiguous. There are just too many moving parts. Disappointing. Worrisome. Exasperating.
Amid recent devastation of typhoons, among other crises, this political storm is draining the productive energies of leaders and many government people to serve, in the same way that it exhausts the vigor of the Filipinos distracted by the political noise. No one is expert enough to help predict the end-game of this unprecedented political crisis painting the gloomy face of national uncertainty. VUCA world, indeed.
VUCA and leadership
However, a crisis may generate a positive effect — hopefully — if, at the end of this chaotic political tug of war, people learn lessons. This political storm must enable us to personify — and be able to choose — the best leaders for the future.
Bill George, senior fellow at Harvard Business School, defines a type of leadership called VUCA 2.0, giving the acronym a completely new meaning: vision, understanding, courage, adaptability.
Vision is the ability to see through chaos and define the ideal state of the future. With core values as its guiding compass, the leader defines the direction of the country and leads its people by communicating and sharing the vision. The Filipinos know that the vision of the “uniteam” has become an illusion. Sadly, there is no national vision. We should discover a leader who can inspire the entire nation toward a shared vision that influences unified action.
Understanding of the leader results from the openness to gain in-depth grasp of rapidly changing circumstances. The leader who has the humility to reflect upon experience, observe the environment, listen and learn will gain greater understanding navigating the storm. But Filipinos are now witness to and are divided by the egoistic pride and mutual arrogance exchanged among leaders who are grandstanding in refusing to seek understanding.
Courage is the risk-taking capability of the leader to make bold decisions and purposeful actions. The courage displayed has become toward narcissistic self-preservation that is neither bold decision nor purposeful action mindful of what benefits the Filipinos and the country. The disconcerted courage leads to chaos.
Adaptability is flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances while maintaining the course toward a vision. The individual differences and personal interests clashed to harm whom the leaders vowed to serve — the interest of the Filipinos.
The question is, do we have a leader who can unite us toward a vision with understanding, courage and adaptability?
Positive VUCA
I propose a VUCA 4.0 anchored on optimism amid the current experiences. VUCA can be given a more positive meaning — virtuous values, utilitarian unity, circumspective clarity, agile action.
Virtuous values anchor us to the morally good that matters most dearly and shared among us. The virtuous values define the core and essence of the Filipino and the nation just like the lighthouse in its rough sail. The many crises we have been through must have given us much time to introspect on our core values.
Utilitarian unity promotes collective collaboration and equitable synergy to achieve the greater good for the greater number. Filipinos are naturally kind who value unity and can be resilient, if united, in overcoming the uncertainty. This crisis is the most opportune moment to redefine unity.
Circumspective clarity achieves understanding that is crystallized by taking everything into account. We should be able to find meaning in this chaos. The complexity can be analyzed by the holographic circumspection to achieve crystal clear clarity — redundancy intended. We should suspend judgment and seek first to understand then to be understood. We should engage intelligent discourse with respectful tolerance and the intention to arrive at collective wisdom for the common interest. We should break our stubborn cognitive biases.
Agile action executes the strategy in a relentless pursuit of the vision. While hope is essential, it is not a strategy. Action is. Ambiguity may challenge the readiness for actions but agility pivots such actions to achieve results, or at least lessons in case they fail. Pivot shifts strategies while sticking to the vision in a situation where inaction is unacceptable. Filipinos need to act to execute change.
Election 2025 is coming, and the current experience is a perfect storm to guide wiser actions. The candidates must prepare for a more discerning electorate who must be sick and tired of the traditional politics they witness every day — locally and nationally. Filipinos must vote wisely.
The VUCA world paints a gloomy picture of the country that was and continues to validate itself in the Philippine politics that is. But as Filipinos make choices, the VUCA world may spell out something to make this nation survive and thrive — and catch-up to its neighbors who have gone farther and better.
Indeed, we are not Filipinos for nothing — unless we learned nothing … unless our hope is reduced to nothing … unless we do nothing.
-END-